The world poultry market recovers although Southeast Asia lags behind
According to the latest Rabobank report, global poultry markets have significantly improved in the second and third quarters of 2021. Most regions are now moving towards profitable market conditions, benefiting from increased demand as economies reopen in most areas and restricted supply.
This is being noticed mainly in the countries of America, where the profitability of the industry has improved. On the contrary, the big exception is Southeast Asia, where the Delta variety of the coronavirus makes local conditions worse.
Positive outlook
The global outlook for the fourth quarter of 2021 is relatively positive, with strong demand and restricted supply, relatively stable but high feed prices, and a further increase in trade volumes, driven by the recovery of the food sector, which in some countries have raised concerns about food inflation. The factor that must be taken into account for the development of this perspective remains COVID-19, the evolution of which could shake markets and the supply chain in some more fragile places, such as Europe and Southeast Asia.
There are stronger local market conditions in all key regions, except Southeast Asia, due to the reopening of economies and the relatively restrictive local supply. The United States, Mexico, Russia, and Japan face particularly strong markets with good profitability for local producers.
Lack of workforce
Supply growth in the second half of 2021 will be constrained in many regions by labor availability issues, which is particularly affecting production in the US, UK, and Thailand. In addition, the current risks of avian influenza and high feed prices are affecting supply worldwide.
Feed prices are expected to remain relatively stable, with some increase in wheat prices due to lower availability from the EU and Russia. Soybean meal prices have been falling due to demand streamlining and a more oil-centric focus among crushers.
World trade experienced a strong recovery in the second quarter of 2021, with trade volumes at record highs. Brazil and the United States have benefited the most from the strong trade, while exports from Europe, Russia, and Ukraine have fallen due to bird flu and slowing Chinese imports.
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