The scoring system helps predict survival in colic horses
Colic, defined as any sharp abdominal pain, is an important sign of gastrointestinal disease in horses. Because colic can be caused by many causes, predicting the prognosis is challenging and even impossible in some cases. Could a scoring system reliably predict survival of colic horses based on some clinical evidence? A team of veterinarians from Iowa, Arizona, and North Carolina have conducted research to prove it.
The researchers took a two-pronged approach to answer this question. First, they designed a retrospective study to determine the clinical parameters reported in horses surviving colic and used these to formulate a survival scoring system. Second, a prospective study included horses presenting with colic to two different veterinary clinics to determine the validity of the scoring system.
Selected variables
In the retrospective study, 658 horses with signs of colic were identified. At the end of their review, the researchers chose six health variables out of a total of 28 to use in the scoring system based on their strong predictive value for prognosis at discharge: heart rate, respiratory rate, total calcium, blood lactate, abnormal abdominal ultrasound, and abnormal rectal examination. A total score of 0 to 12 was obtained, with a range of 0 to 2 points for each of the six variables.
As for the prospective study, data from 95 colicky horses were collected to assess the validity of the scoring system. Those who received a score equal to or less than 7 were predicted to survive, while those who received a score greater than 7 were predicted to die with a sensitivity of 86% and a specificity of 64% with a positive predictive value of 88% and a negative predictive value of 57%.
The classification was compared with the actual result, of which the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the score were 84%, 62%, 88%, and 52%, respectively.
The researchers concluded that "the scoring system developed in this study may be applicable by veterinarians in a hospital setting in clinical cases of horses with signs of colic using data available in most equine centers." However, the scoring system should always be considered in conjunction with the total clinical picture.
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