The war in Ukraine’s impact on swine production
by Jenny Alonge
In a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War that began in 2014, Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. According to the Kyiv School of Economics, Russia’s invasion has cost Ukraine $4.3 billion in damage to farmland, machinery, and livestock. As the war continues, the potential impact on global animal feed and livestock production continues to expand. The pork market will mostly be indirectly impacted, since Russia and Ukraine do not participate much in the international pork product trade, although entry into a new diplomatic and economic era may strengthen pork and wheat exports from Russia to Asia and increase the competition for European and American exporters.
Impact on grain production
Russia and Ukraine are two of the most important world producers and exporters of arable crops. Russia is currently the world’s leading wheat exporter, providing about 20% of the world market’s demand. Eastern Ukraine’s black soils are humus-rich, which creates an ideal environment for several crops. Ukraine also is the world’s fourth-largest corn exporter and fifth-largest wheat exporter. Middle Eastern and North African buyers play an important role in these markets, making access via the Black Sea crucial to continued participation. In addition, Russia and Ukraine are the world's leading sunflower producers, exporting more than 50% of sunflower oil and meal, while Ukraine is the largest soybean exporter outside the Americas, and plays a specific role in global markets as the largest non-GMO exporter. The current war in Ukraine causes concern about availability, since a smaller 2022 harvest is expected because winter crops have been directly damaged from active fighting, and the war has prevented spring crop planting and maintenance tasks that make the crops thrive, and export of stored grains. In addition, 95% of Ukrainian wheat exported in 2020 was from major ports, such as Odessa, Mariupol, Mykolaiv, and Kherson, but the conflict has severely impacted these trade routes. At the beginning of February, 6.3 million tons of soft wheat was in storage, waiting to be exported from Ukraine. Also, restrictive measures toward Russia are reducing the availability of cereals, which significantly impacts livestock food prices, since raw materials aren’t readily available.
Impact on energy and fertilizer
Russia plays a significant role in global energy and fertilizer markets. The country is the world’s top natural gas producer, second-largest oil exporter, and third-largest coal exporter, providing 20%, 11%, and 15% of these global exports, respectively, in 2019. In addition, Russia is the world’s top nitrogen fertilizer exporter, the second-leading potassic fertilizer provider, and the third-leading phosphorus fertilizer supplier, accounting for more than 15% of global fertilizer exports in 2020. Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine has resulted in uncertainty related to Russian energy and fertilizer availability, which livestock food production relies on heavily, and rising energy and fertilizer prices are translating to higher production costs, contributing to livestock food price increases.
Impact on Ukraine’s pork industry
Impacts for Ukraine’s pork industry are extensive, and include:
- Sluggish demand — Typically, Ukraine produces approximately 750,000 tons of pork annually. Since the 2014 crisis, domestic demand has been sluggish, because the country has limited purchasing power, resulting in much lower pork consumption compared with neighboring Poland. Ukraine usually imports around 5% of domestic supplies, limited to complementary supplies of meat, offal, and fat for national processors. While African swine fever (ASF) has limited production in recent years, the ongoing war with Russia has temporarily stopped Ukrainian pork production and trade.
- Polish exports — Typically the European Union, predominantly Poland, exports about 93,000 tons of pork and byproducts to Ukraine every year. Ukraine is also an escape market for European pork when the European supply is too plentiful and Asian demand diminishes. This means that the Russia-Ukraine war could represent difficulty for Polish pork exporters.
- Reduced live imports — Another impact for Ukrainian pork production is reduced live animal imports, especially breeding stock. In 2021, Ukraine imported 6,200 breeding animals, costing $4.9 million. This reduction will mostly affect Danish and French suppliers.
Impact on Russian pork industry
In 2018, Russia became self-sufficient in the pork industry, and over the last two years has reached a pork surplus and started exporting. In 2021, Russia exported 250,000 tons of pork and pork byproducts to European markets, mainly Ukraine and Belarus, as well as Asian markets. Flows to Ukraine have stopped, and increased exportation to other markets, particularly Asia, is available. In addition, Russia imported nearly 14,100 live pigs from the EU and Canada in 2021, and trade interruptions could affect these interactions, particularly with Danish and Dutch suppliers.
The war in Ukraine is disrupting international pork trade, and concerns over grain, energy, and fertilizer availability are increasing livestock feed prices. Tensions between the West and Russia could drive Russia to tighten bonds with Asia and increase competition for American and European pork exporters.
About the author
Jenny Alonge received her Doctor of Veterinary Medicine degree from Mississippi State University in 2002. She subsequently completed an internship in equine medicine and surgery at Louisiana State University. After her internship, she joined an equine ambulatory service in northern Virginia where she practiced for almost 17 years. In 2021, Jenny made a career change in favor of more creative pursuits and accepted a job as a veterinary copywriter for Rumpus Writing and Editing. She adopted two unruly kittens, Olive and Pops, in February 2022.
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